2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
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File:2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin results map by county.svg County results Baldwin: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Hovde: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Wisconsin |
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| File:Seal of Wisconsin.svg |
The 2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Wisconsin. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin won re-election to a third term,[1] narrowly defeating Republican nominee Eric Hovde. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump carried the state on the same ballot. This was the first time that Wisconsin voted for candidates of different political parties for U.S. senator and president since Democrat Gaylord Nelson was reelected as Republican Richard Nixon carried the state in 1968. The closest of Baldwin's three Senate victories, the race held similarities to Ron Johnson's narrow win in 2022, down to the percentage and raw vote margin by which the incumbents won. The primary election took place on August 13, 2024.[2] The election was considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the senate majority in 2024.[3]
Background
No Republican has won this senate seat since Joseph McCarthy in 1952, the longest Democratic streak of any US Senate seat in the nation. Incumbent Tammy Baldwin was first elected in 2012, defeating former governor Tommy Thompson by 6 percentage points. She was re-elected in 2018 by 11 percentage points.[4][5] The race was considered to be slightly favorable to Baldwin, despite Wisconsin's nearly even partisan lean, with most polls showing Baldwin to be the favorite to win. Wisconsin is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since there are both a Republican and a Democratic senator representing the state. Wisconsin was also a top battleground state in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. The state backed the Republican candidate in 2016, and then the Democratic candidate in 2020, both by less than 1% and only a plurality.[citation needed] Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. Republicans control both chambers of the Wisconsin Legislature and hold a supermajority in Wisconsin's U.S. House delegation. Republicans also control the state's other senate seat. However, Democrats have seen success in statewide races, including in 2022, where incumbent governor Tony Evers overperformed expectations and won reelection to a second term, despite polls showing his Republican challenger as the slight favorite.[6][7]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Tammy Baldwin, incumbent U.S. senator[8]
Endorsements
Tammy Baldwin
- U.S. representatives
- Gabby Giffords, AZ-08 (2007–2012)[9]
- Governors
- Gretchen Whitmer, Governor of Michigan (2019–present)[10]
- Individuals
- Harry Dunn, former U.S. Capitol Police officer[11]
- Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, labor organizer and president of NextGen America PAC (2021–present)[12]
- Labor unions
- Actors' Equity Association[13]
- Association of Flight Attendants[14]
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 2150[15]
- United Auto Workers[16]
- United Steelworkers District 7[17]
- Wisconsin AFL-CIO[15]
- Organizations
- 314 Action[18]
- Bend the Arc[19]
- Council for a Livable World[20]
- EMILY's List[1]
- End Citizens United[21]
- Fair Wisconsin PAC[22]
- Feminist Majority PAC[23]
- Giffords[9]
- Human Rights Campaign[24]
- J Street PAC[25]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[26]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[27]
- League of Conservation Voters[28]
- LPAC[29]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[30]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[31]
- National Women's Political Caucus[32]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[33]
- NextGen America PAC[12]
- People for the American Way[34]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[35]
- Population Connection Action Fund[36]
- Stonewall Democratic Club[37]
- Swing Left[38]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of July 24, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Tammy Baldwin (D) | $36,476,704 | $30,268,932 | $6,349,965 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[39] | |||
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Tammy Baldwin (incumbent) | 639,049 | 99.81% | |
| Write-in | 1,198 | 0.19% | ||
| Total votes | 640,247 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
- Charles Barman, retired construction superintendent and perennial candidate[42]
- Rejani Raveendran, chair of University of Wisconsin–Stevens Point College Republicans[43]
Withdrew
- Stacey Klein, Trempealeau County supervisor[44] (running for state senate)[45]
- Patrick Schaefer-Wicke, retired U.S. Army Reserve sergeant major[44]
Declined
- Mike Gallagher, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 8th congressional district (2017–2024)[46]
- Scott Mayer, staffing executive and former Indy Racing League driver[47]
- Bryan Steil, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 1st congressional district (2019–present)[48] (running for re-election, endorsed Hovde)[49][50]
- Tom Tiffany, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 7th congressional district (2020–present) (running for re-election, endorsed Hovde)[51][50]
- Scott Walker, former governor of Wisconsin (2011–2019)[52] (endorsed Hovde)[53]
Endorsements
Eric Hovde
- Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, former President of the United States (2017–2021)[54]
- U.S. senators
- Ron Johnson, U.S. senator from Wisconsin (2011–present)[55]
- U.S. representatives
- Scott Fitzgerald, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 5th congressional district (2021–present)[50]
- Glenn Grothman, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 6th congressional district (2015–present)[50]
- Bryan Steil, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 1st congressional district (2019–present)[50]
- Tom Tiffany, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 7th congressional district (2020–present)[50]
- Derrick Van Orden, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district (2023–present)[50]
- Statewide officials
- Scott Walker, former governor of Wisconsin (2011–2019)[53]
- Organizations
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of July 24, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Eric Hovde (R) | $16,788,769[lower-alpha 1] | $13,609,814 | $3,178,955 |
| Rejani Raveendran (R) | $39,888[lower-alpha 2] | $38,695 | $1,192 |
| Stacey Klein (R)[lower-alpha 3] | $33,712 | $33,712 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[60] | |||
Polling
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 4] |
Margin of error |
David Clarke |
Mike Gallagher |
Eric Hovde |
Scott Mayer |
Tom Tiffany |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | December 11–12, 2023 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | – | 7% | 6% | – | 36% |
| 51% | – | 10% | – | – | 39% | ||||
| 52% | – | – | 6% | – | 42% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | June 5–6, 2023 | 507 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 20% | 3% | – | 10% | 27% |
| 45% | 26% | – | – | – | 29% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Eric Hovde | 477,197 | 86.21% | |
| Republican | Charles Barman | 40,990 | 7.40% | |
| Republican | Rejani Raveendran | 34,612 | 6.25% | |
| Write-in | 748 | 0.14% | ||
| Total votes | 553,547 | 100.0% | ||
Independent candidates
Candidates
Declared
- Phil Anderson (Disrupt The Corruption), realtor, former chair of the Wisconsin Libertarian Party, and perennial candidate[61][62]
- Thomas Leager (America First), lobbyist[63]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[64] | Tossup | October 8, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[65] | Tilt D | September 26, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[66] | Lean D | September 25, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[67] | Lean D | September 26, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[68] | Lean D | August 9, 2024 |
| CNalysis[69] | Lean D | November 4, 2024 |
| RealClearPolitics[70] | Tossup | September 15, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[71] | Lean D | October 23, 2024 |
| 538[72] | Lean D | October 24, 2024 |
Post-primary endorsements
Eric Hovde (R)
- U.S. Senators
- John Thune, Senate Minority Whip (2021–present) from South Dakota (2005–present)[73]
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Independent candidate for President in 2024 [74]
Tammy Baldwin (D)
- Executive branch officials
- Kamala Harris, Vice President of the United States (2021–present)[75]
- Notable individuals
- Organizations
Debates
| No. | Date | Host | Moderators | Link | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||
| Baldwin | Hovde | |||||
| 1 | October 18, 2024 | WMTV | Jill Geisler | YouTube | P | P |
Polling
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Tammy Baldwin (D) |
Eric Hovde (R) |
Undecided [lower-alpha 5] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 49.3% | 47.1% | 3.6% | Baldwin +2.2 |
| Real Clear Politics | October 16 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.9% | 47.1% | 4.0% | Baldwin +1.8 |
| 270toWin | October 23 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.9% | 46.9% | 4.2% | Baldwin +2.0 |
| TheHill/DDHQ | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.6% | 47.9% | 3.5% | Baldwin +0.7 |
| Average | 48.9% | 47.3% | 3.8% | Baldwin+1.6 | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 4] |
Margin of error |
Tammy Baldwin (D) |
Eric Hovde (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | November 3–4, 2024 | 869 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 48% | 1%[lower-alpha 6] | 2% |
| Research Co. | November 2–3, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 47% | 2%[lower-alpha 7] | 3% |
| Patriot Polling (R) | November 1–3, 2024 | 835 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 49% | – | – |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | November 1–3, 2024 | 1,086 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 48% | – | 4% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | November 1–2, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 48% | 3% | 2% |
| AtlasIntel | November 1–2, 2024 | 728 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 48% | 1%[lower-alpha 6] | 2% |
| Emerson College[upper-alpha 1] | October 30 – November 2, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 45% | – | 4% |
| NYT/Siena College | October 25 – November 2, 2024 | 1,001 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 46% | – | 5% |
| 1,001 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 46% | – | 4% | ||
| Mainstreet Research/FAU | October 25 – November 2, 2024 | 786 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 45% | 3%[lower-alpha 8] | 4% |
| 798 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 45% | 3%[lower-alpha 8] | 5% | ||
| Morning Consult | October 23 – November 1, 2024 | 541 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | – | 4% |
| AtlasIntel | October 30–31, 2024 | 673 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 49% | 1%[lower-alpha 6] | 1% |
| YouGov[upper-alpha 2] | October 25–31, 2024 | 863 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 50% | 45% | – | 5% |
| OnMessage (R) | October 29–31, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 48% | 47% | – | 5% |
| ActiVote | October 6–31, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 54% | 46% | – | – |
| TIPP Insights (R)[upper-alpha 3] | October 28–30, 2024 | 831 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 46% | 1% | 4% |
| 1,038 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 43% | 3% | 7% | ||
| Marist College | October 27–30, 2024 | 1,330 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 48% | – | 1% |
| 1,444 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 48% | – | 1% | ||
| Echelon Insights | October 27–30, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 48% | 1%[lower-alpha 9] | 2% |
| SoCal Research (R)[upper-alpha 4] | October 28–29, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 48% | – | 3% |
| AtlasIntel | October 25–29, 2024 | 1,470 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 48% | 2%[lower-alpha 10] | 2% |
| CNN/SSRS | October 23–28, 2024 | 736 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 49% | 47% | 4%[lower-alpha 11] | – |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 26–27, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 49% | 1% | 2% |
| Marquette University | October 16–24, 2024 | 753 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 49% | – | – |
| 49% | 47% | 3%[lower-alpha 12] | 1% | ||||
| 834 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 49% | – | – | ||
| 50% | 46% | 3%[lower-alpha 12] | 1% | ||||
| Suffolk University[upper-alpha 5] | October 20–23, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 44% | 4%[lower-alpha 13] | 7% |
| Emerson College[upper-alpha 6] | October 21–22, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 48% | 1%[lower-alpha 14] | 3% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[upper-alpha 7] | October 19–22, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 49% | 1%[lower-alpha 15] | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 17–21, 2024 | 1,108 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 48% | 2%[lower-alpha 16] | 1% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | October 18–20, 2024 | 1,083 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 49% | – | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[upper-alpha 8] | October 16–18, 2024 | 622 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 44% | 4%[lower-alpha 17] | 8% |
| The Bullfinch Group | October 11–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 45% | – | 7% |
| AtlasIntel | October 12–17, 2024 | 932 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 46% | 2%[lower-alpha 10] | 3% |
| RMG Research[upper-alpha 9] | October 10–16, 2024 | 787 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 47% | 1%[lower-alpha 18] | 2% |
| Morning Consult | October 6–15, 2024 | 527 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 44% | – | 7% |
| Patriot Polling (R) | October 12–14, 2024 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 49% | – | – |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 8–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 47% | 2% | 3% |
| Emerson College[upper-alpha 1] | October 5–8, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 46% | – | 5% |
| Research Co. | October 5–7, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 43% | 1%[lower-alpha 19] | 9% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,073 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 46% | 2%[lower-alpha 20] | 2% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[upper-alpha 8] | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 533 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 42% | 4%[lower-alpha 17] | 7% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 28–30, 2024 | 1,083 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
| ActiVote | August 29 – September 29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 54% | 46% | – | – |
| NYT/Siena College | September 21–26, 2024 | 680 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 43% | – | 7% |
| 680 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 42% | – | 8% | ||
| Marquette University | September 18–26, 2024 | 798 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 53% | 46% | – | 1% |
| 51% | 45% | 2%[lower-alpha 21] | 1% | ||||
| 882 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 53% | 46% | – | 1% | ||
| 51% | 45% | 2%[lower-alpha 21] | 1% | ||||
| AtlasIntel | September 20–25, 2024 | 1,077 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | 3%[lower-alpha 22] | 2% |
| BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 10] | September 19–25, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 47% | 44% | 4%[lower-alpha 23] | 5% |
| 49% | 47% | – | 4% | ||||
| RMG Research[lower-alpha 24] | September 17–23, 2024 | 788 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 45% | – | 4% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[upper-alpha 11] | September 16–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 47% | – | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[upper-alpha 8] | September 16–19, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 41% | 4%[lower-alpha 25] | 8% |
| Emerson College[upper-alpha 1] | September 15–18, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 46% | – | 5% |
| MassINC Polling Group[upper-alpha 12] | September 12–18, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 52% | 44% | 1%[lower-alpha 26] | 2% |
| Morning Consult | September 9–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 43% | – | 7% |
| Marist College | September 12–17, 2024 | 1,312 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 46% | – | 1% |
| 1,194 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 51% | 48% | – | 1% | ||
| Quinnipiac University | September 12–16, 2024 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 47% | 2%[lower-alpha 27] | 1% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/ Impact Research (D)[upper-alpha 13] |
September 11–14, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 47% | – | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[upper-alpha 8] | September 6–9, 2024 | 626 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 39% | 4%[lower-alpha 28] | 12% |
| Morning Consult | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 638 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | – | 9% |
| co/efficient | September 4–6, 2024 | 917 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 43% | – | 8% |
| CBS News/YouGov | September 3–6, 2024 | 944 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 43% | 2%[lower-alpha 29] | 4% |
| Marquette University | August 28 – September 5, 2024 | 822 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 52% | 48% | – | 1% |
| 51% | 45% | 4%[lower-alpha 30] | 1% | ||||
| 738 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 52% | 47% | – | 1% | ||
| 51% | 45% | 4%[lower-alpha 31] | 1% | ||||
| YouGov[upper-alpha 2] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 900 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 41% | – | 10% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | August 28–30, 2024 | 1,083 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 44% | – | 6% |
| CNN/SRSS | August 23–29, 2024 | 976 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 45% | 3%[lower-alpha 32] | – |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[upper-alpha 8] | August 25–28, 2024 | 672 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 41% | 3%[lower-alpha 33] | 11% |
| Emerson College[upper-alpha 1] | August 25–28, 2024 | 850 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 48% | – | 3% |
| BK Strategies[upper-alpha 14] | August 19–21, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 49% | 44% | – | 7% |
| Fabrizio Ward[upper-alpha 15] | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 43% | – | 9% |
| TIPP Insights (R)[upper-alpha 3] | August 12–14, 2024 | 1,015 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 42% | – | 8% |
| 976 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 43% | – | 7% | ||
| The Bullfinch Group[upper-alpha 16] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 41% | – | 9% |
| NYT/Siena College | August 5–8, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 51% | 43% | – | 6% |
| 661 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 51% | 44% | – | 5% | ||
| BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 10] | July 26– August 2, 2024 | 404 (LV) | – | 50% | 43% | – | 7% |
| Marquette University | July 24 – August 1, 2024 | 877 (RV) | ± 4.6% | ||||
| 47% | 39% | – | 14% | ||||
| 53%[lower-alpha 34] | 46% | – | 1% | ||||
| 50% | 44% | 4%[lower-alpha 35] | 1% | ||||
| 801 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 48% | 41% | – | 11% | ||
| 52%[lower-alpha 34] | 47% | – | 1% | ||||
| 51% | 45% | 4%[lower-alpha 35] | 1% | ||||
| Fox News | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,046 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 43% | – | 3% |
| Emerson College[upper-alpha 17] | July 22–23, 2024 | 845 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 43% | – | 8% |
| Joe Biden withdraws from the Presidential Race | |||||||
| YouGov[upper-alpha 2] | July 4–12, 2024 | 900 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 43% | 1%[lower-alpha 36] | 7% |
| 831 (LV) | – | 50% | 44% | 1%[lower-alpha 37] | 5% | ||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 18] | July 10-11, 2024 | 548 (RV) | – | 51% | 43% | – | 6% |
| North Star Opinion Research[upper-alpha 19] | July 6–10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 41% | – | 10% |
| SoCal Research (R)[upper-alpha 4] | June 30 – July 2, 2024 | 490 (RV) | – | 50% | 38% | – | 12% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D)[upper-alpha 13] |
June 28 – July 2, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 45% | – | 6% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[upper-alpha 11] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 593 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | – | 3% |
| Marquette University | June 12–20, 2024 | 871 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 45% | 38% | – | 17% |
| 52%[lower-alpha 34] | 47% | – | – | ||||
| 784 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% | ||
| 52%[lower-alpha 34] | 47% | – | – | ||||
| Emerson College[upper-alpha 1] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 44% | – | 10% |
| Mainstreet Research/FAU | May 30–31, 2024 | 338 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 43% | 38% | 8%[lower-alpha 38] | 11% |
| 290 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 47% | 39% | 7%[lower-alpha 39] | 7% | ||
| KAConsulting (R)[upper-alpha 20] | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
| BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 10] | May 6–13, 2024 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 37% | – | 14% |
| NYT/Siena College | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 40% | – | 10% |
| 614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | – | 9% | ||
| Quinnipiac University | May 2–6, 2024 | 1,457 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 54% | 42% | 2%[lower-alpha 40] | 2% |
| Emerson College[upper-alpha 1] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% |
| CBS News/YouGov | April 19–25, 2024 | 1,245 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 41% | 3%[lower-alpha 41] | 8% |
| Marquette University | April 3–10, 2024 | 814 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 52% | 47% | – | 1% |
| 736 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 50% | 50% | – | – | ||
| Emerson College | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 42% | – | 14% |
| Emerson College | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 39% | – | 15% |
Hypothetical polling
- Tammy Baldwin vs. Mike Gallagher
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 4] |
Margin of error |
Tammy Baldwin (D) |
Mike Gallagher (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 21] | May 23–25, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
- Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 4] |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 21] | May 23–25, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
- Tammy Baldwin vs. generic opponent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 4] |
Margin of error |
Tammy Baldwin (D) |
Generic Opponent |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 21] | May 23–25, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 43% | 17% |
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Tammy Baldwin (D) | $52,311,612 | $50,068,242 | $2,385,563 |
| Eric Hovde (R) | $29,531,138[lower-alpha 42] | $25,920,194 | $3,610,943 |
| Phil Anderson (DTC) | $51,363 | $49,586 | $1,777 |
| Thomas Leager (AF) | $23,751 | $23,600 | $191 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[39] | |||
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Tammy Baldwin (incumbent) | 1,672,777 | 49.33% | −6.03% | |
| Republican | Eric Hovde | 1,643,996 | 48.48% | +3.95% | |
| Disrupt the Corruption | Phil Anderson | 42,315 | 1.25% | N/A | |
| America First | Thomas Leager | 28,751 | 0.85% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 2,948 | 0.09% | -0.02% | ||
| Total votes | 3,390,787 | 100.0% | |||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By congressional district
Despite losing the state, Hovde won 6 of 8 congressional districts.[79]
| District | Baldwin | Hovde | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 47% | 50% | Bryan Steil |
| 2nd | 70% | 29% | Mark Pocan |
| 3rd | 47% | 51% | Derrick Van Orden |
| 4th | 75% | 22% | Gwen Moore |
| 5th | 38% | 60% | Scott L. Fitzgerald |
| 6th | 41% | 56% | Glenn Grothman |
| 7th | 39% | 59% | Tom Tiffany |
| 8th | 42% | 56% | Tony Wied |
See also
Notes
- ↑ $13,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Hovde
- ↑ $10,000 of this total was self-funded by Raveendran
- ↑ Withdrew
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
- ↑ "Some other candidate" with 2%
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 "Another candidate" with 3%
- ↑ "I Did Note Vote For This Office" with 1%
- ↑ 10.0 10.1 "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
- ↑ "Other" with 3%; "Neither" with 1%
- ↑ 12.0 12.1 Anderson (I) with 2%; Leager (I) with 1%
- ↑ Leager (I) with 2%; Anderson (I) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
- ↑ "Someone else" with 1%
- ↑ Anderson (I) with 1%
- ↑ "Someone else" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
- ↑ 17.0 17.1 "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; Leager (I) and Anderson (I) with 1%
- ↑ "Would not vote" with 1%
- ↑ "Some other candidate" with 1%
- ↑ "Wouldn't vote" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
- ↑ 21.0 21.1 Leager (I) and Anderson (I) with 1%
- ↑ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
- ↑ "Someone else" with 2%; "Would not vote" with 2%
- ↑ Poll sponsored by Napolitan News
- ↑ "Won't vote if these are the candidates", "Other", Leager (I) and Anderson (I) with 1%
- ↑ "Prefer not to say" with 1%
- ↑ "Refused" and "Wouldn't Vote" with 1%
- ↑ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; Leager (I) and Anderson (I) with 1%
- ↑ "Someone else" with 2%
- ↑ Leager (I) and Anderson (I) with 2%
- ↑ Leager (I) and Anderson (I) with 2%
- ↑ "Other" with 2%; "Neither" with 1%
- ↑ Leager with 1%; Anderson with 1%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
- ↑ 34.0 34.1 34.2 34.3 With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ↑ 35.0 35.1 Anderson with 2%; Leager with 2%
- ↑ "Other" with 1%
- ↑ "Other" with 1%
- ↑ "Another candidate" with 8%
- ↑ "Another candidate" with 7%
- ↑ "Wouldn't vote" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
- ↑ "Someone else" with 3%
- ↑ $13,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Hovde
- Partisan clients
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 Poll sponsored by The Hill
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Poll sponsored by American Greatness
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Poll sponsored by On Point Politics.
- ↑ Poll sponsored by USA Today
- ↑ Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
- ↑ Poll sponsored by Senate Opportunity Fund, a super PAC that primarily supports Republican candidates in U.S. Senate races
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
- ↑ Poll sponsored by The Napolitan Institute
- ↑ 10.0 10.1 10.2 Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
- ↑ 11.0 11.1 Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
- ↑ Poll sponsored by Wisconsin Watch
- ↑ 13.0 13.1 Poll sponsored by AARP
- ↑ Poll sponsored by Platform Communications
- ↑ Poll sponsored by Pinpoint Policy Institute
- ↑ Poll sponsored by The Independent Center
- ↑ Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
- ↑ Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party.
- ↑ Poll sponsored by American Greatness, a conservative group
- ↑ Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
- ↑ 21.0 21.1 21.2 Poll sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Gallagher.
References
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Andrea, Lawrence (April 12, 2023). "Tammy Baldwin launches re-election bid, setting up 2024 Senate battle in Wisconsin". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved April 12, 2023.
- ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
- ↑ "The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024". CNN. July 20, 2024.
- ↑ "Wisconsin". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 21, 2023.
- ↑ "Wisconsin | Full Senate results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved March 21, 2023.
- ↑ "Wisconsin 2020 presidential election results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved March 21, 2023.
- ↑ "Opinion | In Wisconsin, Tony Evers made a virtue of being dull". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved March 21, 2023.
- ↑ Wells, Dylan (April 12, 2023). "Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin announces reelection bid in Wisconsin". Washington Post. Retrieved April 12, 2023.
- ↑ 9.0 9.1 "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Tammy Baldwin for Reelection to the US Senate". Giffords. September 6, 2023. Retrieved September 7, 2023.
- ↑ Staff, A. O. L. (May 17, 2024). "Whitmer's Fight Like Hell PAC releases initial Senate endorsements". www.aol.com. Retrieved June 14, 2024.
- ↑ Kurtz, Josh (July 10, 2024). "Dunn's new PAC backs 10 Democratic Senate candidates, including Alsobrooks". Maryland Matters. Maryland Matters. Retrieved July 11, 2024.
- ↑ 12.0 12.1 "NextGen PAC: Endorses Sen. Baldwin ahead of 2024 elections". Wispolitics.com. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
- ↑ "Actors' Equity Association Endorses Tammy Baldwin for United States Senate". www.actorsequity.org. Actors' Equity Association. August 7, 2024. Retrieved September 11, 2024.
- ↑ "AFA Endorsed Candidates for 2024 Election". Association of Flight Attendants-CWA. Retrieved April 29, 2024.
- ↑ 15.0 15.1 "Wisconsin AFL-CIO Endorses Tammy Baldwin in 2024 Senate Race". Wisconsin AFL-CIO. May 26, 2023. Retrieved May 28, 2023.
- ↑ "Wisconsin". UAW Endorsements. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
- ↑ "Baldwin Campaign: United Steelworkers District 7 endorses Tammy Baldwin for U.S. Senate". Wis Politics. November 8, 2024. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
- ↑ "314 Action Fund Endorses Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin for Re-Election. - 3.14 Action".
- ↑ "Bend the Arc Jewish Action PAC". Bend the Arc: Jewish Action. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
- ↑ "Senate Candidates". Council for a Livable World. Retrieved August 24, 2023.
- ↑ McIntire, Mary Ellen; Altimari, Altimari; Jackson, Herb (April 25, 2023). "At the Races: Survey Says What?". Roll Call. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
- ↑ "Fair Wisconsin Political Action Committee (PAC)". Fair Wisconsin PAC. May 22, 2023. Retrieved June 27, 2023.
- ↑ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved April 11, 2023.
- ↑ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin for Re-election". Human Rights Campaign. December 13, 2023. Retrieved December 14, 2023.
- ↑ "Tammy Baldwin". JStreetPAC. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
- ↑ "JDCA Announces First Round of 2024 Senate Endorsements". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
- ↑ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
- ↑ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
- ↑ "LPAC Announces April 2023 Endorsement Slate". LPAC. April 18, 2023. Retrieved April 24, 2023.
- ↑ Communications (July 20, 2023). "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Sen. Tammy Baldwin for Reelection to the U.S. Senate for Wisconsin". NARAL Pro-Choice America. Archived from the original on July 20, 2023. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
- ↑ Engst, Kodie (March 18, 2024). "Baldwin campaign: National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare PAC endorses Tammy Baldwin for U.S. Senate". WisPolitics. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
- ↑ "Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus. Retrieved September 29, 2023.
- ↑ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
- ↑ "People For Endorses Seven New and Incumbent Senate Candidates in "Defend the Senate" Campaign". People for the American Way (Press release). July 29, 2024. Retrieved July 29, 2024.
- ↑ "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorses Reproductive Rights Champions Baldwin, Brown, Gillibrand, Rosen, Tester for Re-Election in 2024". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved July 31, 2023.
- ↑ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
- ↑ "2023 - 2024 Stonewall Endorsed Candidates". Stonewall Democratic Club. Retrieved October 17, 2023.
- ↑ "Make a high-impact donation—without all the usual drama". Swing Left.
- ↑ 39.0 39.1 "2024 Election United States Senate - Wisconsin". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
- ↑ 40.0 40.1 "WEC Canvass - 2024 Partisan Primary" (PDF). Wisconsin Elections Commission.
- ↑ Edelman, Adam (February 20, 2024). "Republican Eric Hovde officially enters Wisconsin Senate race against Tammy Baldwin". NBC News. Retrieved February 20, 2024.
- ↑ Candidate Tracking by Office - 2024 General Election - 11/5/2024 (Report). Wisconsin Elections Commission. May 29, 2024. Retrieved May 30, 2024.
- ↑ Bauer, Scott (August 8, 2023). "A longshot Republican is entering the US Senate race in Wisconsin against Sen. Tammy Baldwin". Town and Country Today.
- ↑ 44.0 44.1 "Klein dropping U.S. Senate bid". WisPolitics. March 28, 2024. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ↑ "Klein campaign: Transitions campaign from U.S. Senate to Wisconsin state Senate District 32". Wispolitics. April 9, 2024. Retrieved April 9, 2024.
- ↑ Andrea, Lawrence (June 9, 2023). "Wisconsin Rep. Mike Gallagher says he will not run for Senate in 2024, leaving an open GOP field". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved June 9, 2023.
- ↑ Andrea, Lawrence (March 19, 2024). "Scott Mayer won't enter Republican field to challenge Tammy Baldwin". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved March 19, 2024.
- ↑ Lieffring, Christina (May 24, 2023). "Website names purchased, big cash raised, but Steil 'not running,' Gallagher mum on running against 'popular' Baldwin". The Badger Project. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
- ↑ Glauber, Bill; Andrea, Lawrence (February 13, 2023). "Wisconsin Republicans Who Could Challenge Sen. Tammy Baldwin in 2024". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
- ↑ 50.0 50.1 50.2 50.3 50.4 50.5 50.6 Singer, Jeff (April 2, 2024). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/2". Daily Kos. Retrieved April 2, 2024.
WI-Sen: Wealthy businessman Eric Hovde on Monday publicized endorsements from all five members of Wisconsin's GOP House delegation.
- ↑ Andrea, Lawrence (August 1, 2023). "U.S. Rep. Tiffany says he will not run for Senate in 2024". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved August 1, 2023.
- ↑ Glauber, Bill (March 20, 2023). "Scott Walker won't challenge Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin in 2024: 'I would be bored as a senator'". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved March 20, 2023.
- ↑ 53.0 53.1 Singer, Jeff (February 16, 2024). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/16". Daily Kos. Retrieved February 16, 2024.
WI-Sen: Former GOP Gov. Scott Walker has endorsed wealthy businessman Eric Hovde
- ↑ Vakil, Caroline (April 2, 2024). "Trump endorses Eric Hovde in Wisconsin Senate race". The Hill. Retrieved April 2, 2024.
- ↑ Staff, WHSV News (July 16, 2024). "Sen. Ron Johnson talks about US Senate candidate Hovde". WHSV-TV. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
- ↑ Action, A. F. P. (February 21, 2024). "Americans for Prosperity Action Endorses Eric Hovde for U.S. Senate". AFP Action. Retrieved February 21, 2024.
- ↑ Valentine, Jesse (February 26, 2024). "Republican Eric Hovde makes inconsistent statements about family history". American Journal News. Retrieved March 2, 2024.
- ↑ Action, F.C.R. (February 21, 2024). "University of Wisconsin-Madison College Republicans Endorse Eric Hovde for U.S. Senate". Twitter. Retrieved February 25, 2024.
- ↑ "Wisconsin Federation of College Republicans Endorsements". March 11, 2024. Retrieved March 11, 2024.
- ↑ "2024 Election United States Senate - Wisconsin". FEC.gov. Retrieved September 7, 2024.
- ↑ Frisk, Garrett (March 28, 2023). "First Declared Challenger to Tammy Baldwin is a Libertarian". Diamond Eye Candidate Report.
- ↑ Candidate Tracking by Office - 2024 General Election - 11/5/2024 (Report). Wisconsin Elections Commission. May 23, 2024. pp. 1–2. Retrieved May 24, 2024.
- ↑ Bice, Daniel (August 5, 2024). "Thomas Leager is running for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin. He claims ties to Whitmer plot". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
- ↑ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- ↑ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
- ↑ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
- ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
- ↑ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
- ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
- ↑ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
- ↑ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
- ↑ Mutnick, Ally (October 15, 2024). "John Thune doles out the money as he runs for Senate GOP leader". Politico. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
- ↑ Mutnick, Ally (October 15, 2024). "John Thune doles out the money as he runs for Senate GOP leader". Politico. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
- ↑ "Remarks by Vice President Harris at a Campaign Event". The White House. Madison, Wisconsin. Retrieved October 9, 2024.
- ↑ @tammybaldwin (November 1, 2024). "Cardi B x Tammy B" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ↑ "Baldwin, Tiffany and Van Orden Among Federal Candidates Endorsed by WFBF Board". Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation.
- ↑ "2024 General Election Results - US Senate" (PDF). Wisconsin Elections Commission.
- ↑ https://elections.wi.gov/sites/default/files/documents/Ward%20by%20Ward%20Report%20by%20Congressional%20District_November%205%202024%20General%20Election_Federal%20and%20State%20Contests.xlsx
External links
- Official campaign websites