2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
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| Elections in New Hampshire |
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The 2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor John Lynch was re-elected to his fourth and final term.[1] New Hampshire is one of only two states where the Governor serves for a two-year term, the other being neighboring Vermont. Lynch was re-elected by landslide margins in 2006 and 2008, and enjoyed historically high approval ratings. In early 2010, his approval rating showed a downward trend, with an April poll indicating that his approval had fallen below 50% (44% approve, 42% disapprove).[2] After the primary elections in mid-September, Lynch's approval rating rebounded (51% approve, 38% disapprove).[3]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- John Lynch, incumbent Governor[4]
- Timothy Robertson, state representative
- Frank Sullivan
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John Lynch (incumbent) | 49,832 | 87.5 | |
| Democratic | Timothy Robertson | 3,771 | 6.6 | |
| Democratic | Frank Sullivan | 3,377 | 5.9 | |
| Total votes | 56,980 | 97.3 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Frank Robert Emiro Sr., state representative
- Jack Kimball, businessman[6]
- John Stephen, former Health and Human Services Commissioner[7]
- Karen Testerman, conservative activist[6]
Declined
- Kelly Ayotte, New Hampshire Attorney General[8]
- Frank Guinta, Mayor of Manchester[9]
- Chuck Morse, former State Senator[10]
- John E. Sununu, former U.S. Senator
Polling
| Poll source | Dates administered | Jack Kimball |
John Stephen |
Karen Testerman |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[11] | September 11–12, 2010 | 24% | 45% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling[12] | July 23–25, 2010 | 15% | 26% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling[13] | April 17–18, 2010 | 10% | 29% | 15% |
Results
Stephen–60–70%
Stephen–50–60%
Stephen–40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Stephen | 77,962 | 61.6 | |
| Republican | Jack Kimball | 31,581 | 24.9 | |
| Republican | Karen Testerman | 12,708 | 10.0 | |
| Republican | Frank Emiro | 4,394 | 3.5 | |
| Total votes | 126,645 | 96.7 | ||
General election
Candidates
- John Babiarz, Libertarian
- John Lynch, Democratic
- John Stephen, Republican
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[14] | Tossup | October 14, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[15] | Lean D | October 28, 2010 |
| RealClearPolitics[16] | Lean D | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] | Lean D | October 28, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[18] | Likely D | October 28, 2010 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
John Lynch (D) |
John Stephen (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[19] | October 27, 2010 | 51% | 45% |
| WMUR/UNH[20] | October 7–12, 2010 | 51% | 38% |
| American Research Group[21] | October 3–5, 2010 | 51% | 41% |
| Granite State Poll[22] | October 1, 2010 | 51% | 34% |
| American Research Group[21] | September 22–26, 2010 | 42% | 40% |
| Rasmussen Reports[23] | September 15, 2010 | 48% | 46% |
| Public Policy Polling[24] | September 11–12, 2010 | 51% | 39% |
| Rasmussen Reports[25] | August 5, 2010 | 50% | 39% |
| Public Policy Polling[26] | July 23–25, 2010 | 51% | 34% |
| Rasmussen Reports[27] | May 26, 2010 | 47% | 35% |
| Public Policy Polling[28] | April 17–18, 2010 | 47% | 36% |
| Rasmussen Reports[29] | April 7, 2010 | 47% | 37% |
| Rasmussen Reports[30] | March 8, 2010 | 50% | 35% |
| Granite State Poll[31] | January 27-February 3, 2010 | 50% | 30% |
Hypothetical polling
With Kimball
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | John Lynch (D) |
Jack Kimball (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[26] | July 23–25, 2010 | 52% | 29% |
| Rasmussen Reports[27] | May 26, 2010 | 50% | 31% |
| Public Policy Polling[28] | April 17–18, 2010 | 47% | 35% |
| Rasmussen Reports[29] | April 7, 2010 | 50% | 34% |
| Rasmussen Reports[30] | March 8, 2010 | 51% | 32% |
| Research 2000[32] | February 1–3, 2010 | 59% | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports[33] | January 12, 2010 | 51% | 32% |
| Rasmussen Reports[34] | September 14, 2009 | 52% | 31% |
With Morse
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | John Lynch (D) |
Chuck Morse (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[34] | September 14, 2009 | 51% | 29% |
With Sununu
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | John Lynch (D) |
John Sununu (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Granite State Poll[35] | September 25-October 2, 2009 | 50% | 37% |
| Rasmussen Reports[34] | September 14, 2009 | 48% | 43% |
With Testerman
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | John Lynch (D) |
Karen Testerman (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[26] | July 23–25, 2010 | 52% | 28% |
| Rasmussen Reports[27] | May 26, 2010 | 51% | 32% |
| Public Policy Polling[28] | April 17–18, 2010 | 47% | 29% |
| Rasmussen Reports[29] | April 7, 2010 | 50% | 33% |
| Rasmussen Reports[30] | March 8, 2010 | 54% | 28% |
| Rasmussen Reports[33] | January 12, 2010 | 53% | 30% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John Lynch (incumbent) | 240,346 | 52.63% | −17.57% | |
| Republican | John Stephen | 205,616 | 45.03% | +17.43% | |
| Libertarian | John Babiarz | 10,089 | 2.21% | +0.02% | |
| Write-in | 537 | <0.01% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 456,588 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican
- Rockingham (largest municipality: Derry)
References
- ↑ "NH Gov. John Lynch Running for 4th Term - FOX44NOW.COM - Burlington/Plattsburgh News, Weather and Sports". FOX44NOW.COM. Archived from the original on March 1, 2012. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- ↑ "Lynch Leads All Republicans for Re-election in N.H." (PDF). Public Policy Polling. April 23, 2010.
- ↑ http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_916.pdf [dead link]
- ↑ "Gov. Lynch could face difficult re-election bid » New Hampshire » EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA". Eagletribune.com. April 18, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.[permanent dead link]
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 "New Hampshire Gubernatorial Primary Results". Politico. September 14, 2010. Retrieved September 14, 2010.
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 John Distaso (December 9, 2009). "Testerman steps into the ring in governor's race". The Union Leader. Archived from the original on February 20, 2010. Retrieved January 1, 2010.
- ↑ "John Stephen for Governor | New Leadership for New Hampshire". Johnstephen.com. Archived from the original on September 15, 2008. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- ↑ "Republicans land top recruit in New Hampshire - The Scorecard". Politico.Com. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- ↑ "Frank Guinta for Congress". Teamguinta.com. July 29, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- ↑ "Downing runs for sheriff, Morse for NH Senate » Latest News » EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA". Eagletribune.com. May 27, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- ↑ Public Policy Polling
- ↑ Public Policy Polling
- ↑ Public Policy Polling
- ↑ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- ↑ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- ↑ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- ↑ "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- ↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
- ↑ Rasmussen Reports
- ↑ WMUR/UNH
- ↑ 21.0 21.1 American Research Group
- ↑ Granite State Poll
- ↑ Rasmussen Reports
- ↑ Public Policy Polling
- ↑ Rasmussen Reports
- ↑ 26.0 26.1 26.2 Public Policy Polling
- ↑ 27.0 27.1 27.2 Rasmussen Reports
- ↑ 28.0 28.1 28.2 Public Policy Polling
- ↑ 29.0 29.1 29.2 Rasmussen Reports
- ↑ 30.0 30.1 30.2 Rasmussen Reports
- ↑ Granite State Poll
- ↑ Research 2000
- ↑ 33.0 33.1 Rasmussen Reports
- ↑ 34.0 34.1 34.2 Rasmussen Reports
- ↑ Granite State Poll
External links
- Election Division at New Hampshire Secretary of State
- New Hampshire Governor Candidates at Project Vote Smart
- Campaign contributions for 2010 New Hampshire Governor from Follow the Money
- New Hampshire Governor 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
- 2010 New Hampshire Gubernatorial General Election: All Head-to-Head Matchups graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- Election 2010: New Hampshire Governor from Rasmussen Reports
- 2010 New Hampshire Governor Race from Real Clear Politics
- 2010 New Hampshire Governor's Race from CQ Politics
- Race Profile in The New York Times
Official campaign sites (Archived)