2004 United States Senate election in South Dakota

2004 United States Senate election in South Dakota

November 2, 2004

File:John Thune official photo (cropped).jpg File:Tom Daschle, official Senate photo.jpg Nominee John Thune Tom Daschle Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 197,848 193,340 Percentage 50.58% 49.42%

File:2004 United States Senate election in South Dakota results map by county.svg County results Thune:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80% Daschle:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

U.S. senator before election Tom Daschle Democratic Elected U.S. Senator John Thune Republican

The 2004 United States Senate election in South Dakota was held on November 2, 2004. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator and Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle ran for re-election to a fourth term, but was narrowly defeated by Republican John Thune. Daschle was the only incumbent U.S. Senator to lose re-election in the 2004 election cycle. His defeat also marked the only time a Senate party leader lost re-election since 1952 when Barry Goldwater defeated Ernest McFarland in Arizona. On November 12, 2024, Thune was elected leader of the Senate Republican Conference, making this seat the only seat in the United States Senate held back to back by a Senate Majority Leader of two different parties.

General election

Candidates

• Tom Daschle, incumbent U.S. Senator and Senate Minority Leader (Democratic)
• John Thune, former U.S. Representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2002 (Republican)

Campaign

Daschle responded to Thune's claim that he was a partisan anti-Bush obstructionist by pointing to his action just nine days after the September 11 attacks when he hugged President Bush on the Senate floor following Bush's address to Congress and the nation. He also hit back by alleging that Thune wanted to "rubber stamp what the administration is doing." Daschle's use of the video of his embrace of Bush forced the Republican National Committee to demand that the ad be pulled, claiming that it suggests that Bush endorses Daschle. Shortly following the airing of the ad, in a nationally televised debate on NBC's Meet the Press, Thune accused Daschle of "emboldening the enemy" in his skepticism of the Iraq War. Daschle also noticeably relied very heavily on the power of incumbency to win a fourth term. Some also argued that Stephanie Herseth's election to the state's only House seat hurt Daschle, as voters may not have been comfortable sending an all-Democratic delegation to Congress for the first time in many decades. Accusations that Daschle was possibly considering no longer being an official resident of South Dakota were believed to have offended voters there. Others have analyzed that Daschle's lengthy consideration and eventual rejection of a potential run for the presidency in 2004 took a toll on South Dakotans, who felt betrayed and used by Daschle as a result. When the race began in early 2004, Daschle led by seven points in January and February. By May, his lead minimized to just two points and into the summer polls showed a varying number of trends: either Daschle held a slim one to two-point lead, Thune held a slim one to two-point lead, or the race was tied. Throughout September, Daschle led Thune by margins of two to five percent. During the entire month of October into the November 2 election, most polls showed that Thune and Daschle were dead even, usually tied 49-49 among likely voters. Some polls showed either Thune or Daschle leading by extremely slim margins. Thune is a onetime aide to Senator James Abdnor, the man Daschle defeated in 1986 to gain his seat in the Senate. During Daschle's farewell address on November 19, 2004, he received a standing ovation from the Senate floor. His term as South Dakota's senator expired on January 3, 2005, with the commencement of the 109th Congress. Harry Reid took over as Minority Leader, and became Majority Leader in 2007.

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean R (flip)	November 1, 2004

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Thune (R)	Tom Daschle (D)	Undecided
Zogby International	October 25–26, 2004	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	48.5%	45.5%	6.0%
Rasmussen Reports	October 25, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	49%	46%	5%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)	October 21–24, 2004	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	48.5%	44.5%	6.0%
Mason-Dixon	October 19–21, 2004	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	47%	49%	4%
Rasmussen Reports	October 12, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	49%	49%	2%
Rasmussen Reports	September 29, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	50%	46%	4%
Zogby International	September 24–28, 2004	506 (LV)	± 4.5%	45.5%	47.8%	6.7%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	September 21–22, 2002	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	50%	47%	3%
Mason-Dixon	September 20–22, 2004	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	45%	50%	5%
Rasmussen Reports	September 8, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	50%	47%	3%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D)	August 25–30, 2004	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	45%	53%	2%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	August 24–26, 2002	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	50%	48%	2%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)	August 11–12, 2004	400 (V)	± 4.9%	45.0%	48.3%	6.7%
Zogby International	May 19–20, 2004	503 (LV)	± 4.5%	39%	52%	9%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D)	May 11–12, 2004	506 (RV)	± 4.4%	42%	55%	4%
Mason-Dixon	May 10–12, 2004	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	47%	49%	4%
Zogby International	March 27–28, 2004	501 (LV)	± 4.5%	42.6%	48.2%	9.2%
Rasmussen Reports	February 11, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	45%	48%	7%
Mason-Dixon	February 5–7, 2004	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	43%	50%	7%
Mason-Dixon	Oct 31–Nov 2, 2003	400 (LV)	± 5%	44%	50%	6%
Mason-Dixon	August 26–27, 2003	400 (LV)	± 5%	46%	48%	6%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)	July 16–17, 2003	400 (V)	± 4.9%	45.7%	46.6%	7.7%
Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates (R)	July 7–10, 2003	400 (V)	± 4.9%	40%	46%	14%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)	March 23–24, 2003	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	46%	44%	10%
Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates (R)	February 22–25, 2003		± 3.1%	45%	45%	10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	November 20–21, 2002	500 (LV)	± 4.3%	45%	46%	9%
Mason-Dixon	July 2002	400 (V)	± 5%	46%	48%	6%

Results

General election results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	John Thune	197,848	50.58%	+14.17%
	Democratic	Tom Daschle (incumbent)	193,340	49.42%	−12.72%
Total votes			391,188	100.00%	N/A
	Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Douglas (largest city: Armour)
• Union (Largest city: Dakota Dunes)
• Hutchinson (largest city: Parkston)
• Lincoln (largest city: Sioux Falls)
• Turner (largest city: Parker)
• Butte (largest city: Belle Fourche)
• Perkins (largest city: Belle Fourche)
• Tripp (largest city: Winner)
• Fall River (largest city: Hot Springs)
• Lawrence (largest city: Spearfish)
• Meade (largest city: Sturgis)
• Pennington (largest city: Rapid City)
• Gregory (largest city: Gregory)
• Stanley (largest city: Fort Pierre)
• Sully (largest city: Onida)
• Hughes (largest city: Pierre)
• Hyde (largest city: Highmore)
• McPherson (largest city: Eureka)
• Potter (largest city: Gettysburg)
• Walworth (largest city: Mobridge)
• Campbell (largest city: Herreid)
• Hanson (largest city: Alexandria)
• Codington (largest city: Watertown)
• Davison (largest city: Mitchell)
• Hamlin (largest city: Estelline)
• McCook (largest city: Salem)

See also

• 2004 United States Senate elections