Statewide opinion polling for the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
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This is a list of statewide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the Democratic primaries for the 2020 United States presidential election. The persons named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy. Given the large number of potential candidates, the scores of certain low-polling and infrequently-polled candidates have been combined within the "other" column; their exact scores may be viewed by viewing the footnotes associated with each poll. The polls included are among Democrats or Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, and do not include Republican-leaning independents. The statewide polls are ordered by the scheduled date of the state's primary or caucus. Open-ended polls are included and marked with an asterisk (*), but closed-ended versions of such polls are listed where possible. If multiple versions of polls are provided, the version used for debate qualification is prioritized, then the version among likely voters, then registered voters, then adults.
Background
The Democratic National Committee has determined that candidates may qualify for the first two Democratic primary debates either by polling at 1% or higher in at least three national or early-state (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina) polls sponsored or conducted by designated organizations (in different regions if by the same organization) published after January 1, 2019, up until June 12, 2019, or by a fundraising threshold requiring at least 65,000 unique donors with at least 200 in 20 different states. Should more than 20 candidates meet either threshold, then candidates meeting both thresholds will be given highest priority for entry into the debates, followed by those with the highest polling average and those with the most donors. The pollsters and sponsors of polls designated for consideration by the DNC are the Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, The Des Moines Register, Fox News, the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Monmouth University, NBC News, The New York Times, National Public Radio, Quinnipiac University, Reuters, the University of New Hampshire, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and Winthrop University.[1] Open-ended polls do not count towards the polling threshold.[2] For the third and fourth primary debates, candidates will be required to meet both polling and fundraising thresholds, with the prior considering only polls between June 28 and August 28, 2019, and increased to 4 qualifying polls at 2% support, now excluding surveys sponsored by the Las Vegas Review-Journal and Reuters; the latter requirement has also been increased, to 130,000 unique donors with at least 400 in 20 different states.[3] Individuals who have been included in national Democratic primary polls but have either ruled out their candidacy or not expressed interest in running include Stacey Abrams, Michael Avenatti, Sherrod Brown, Hillary Clinton, Mark Cuban, Andrew Cuomo, Al Franken, Eric Garcetti, Tim Kaine, Jason Kander, Joe Kennedy III, John Kerry, Mitch Landrieu, Terry McAuliffe, Chris Murphy, Gavin Newsom, Michelle Obama, Howard Schultz, Oprah Winfrey, and Mark Zuckerberg.
Polling in the four early primary states
The following Morning Consult[4] weekly poll archive[5][6][7] graph depicts the evolution of the standing of each candidate in the early primary states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina) since February 2019.
Polling for Super Tuesday
The following Morning Consult[8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15] graph depicts the evolution of the standing of each candidate in the March 3, 2020 Super Tuesday states (Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia) since January 7, 2020.
Primary and caucus calendar
February
March 3 (Super Tuesday)
March 10
March 14–17
March 24–29
April 4–17
April 28
May
June–August
The following dates reflect either the confirmed or expected dates of Democratic primaries and caucuses in 2020. Those for contests in U.S. territories with no date yet set are based on dates estimated by The Green Papers based on past years. The pledged delegate numbers listed below are based on the presidential votes in 2008, 2012, and 2016, as well as the number of electoral votes of each state in 2020. The number of DNC members and distinguished party leaders in the count of unpledged PLEO (party leaders and elected officials) delegates is based on the 2016 Democratic National Convention, while the number of unpledged officeholders (governors, members of Congress, and their equivalents in non-state jurisdictions) reflects their current total. The numbers of pledged delegates do not yet account for delegate bonuses or penalties from timing or clustering.[16][17][18] States listed with a lavender background and an asterisk (*) do not yet have a date set by existing statute. States with a light yellow background and a dagger (†) are set to shift their primary or caucus date following the expected passage of legislation moving the dates of their contests. If not already listed as such, the date to which the contest is expected to be moved is listed in parentheses. Party-run primaries (also described as either a firehouse primary or caucus in some jurisdictions) are listed with two asterisks (**).[16][17][18]
| Date | State/territory | Type | Eligibility | P | U | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3 | Iowa | Caucus | Closed | 41 | 8 | 49 |
| Feb 11 | New Hampshire | Primary | Mixed | 24 | 9 | 33 |
| Feb 22 | Nevada | Caucus | Closed | 36 | 12 | 48 |
| Feb 29 | South Carolina | Primary | Open | 54 | 9 | 63 |
| Mar 3 | Alabama | Primary | Open | 52 | 9 | 61 |
| American Samoa* | Caucus | Open | 6 | 5 | 11 | |
| Arkansas | Primary | Open | 31 | 5 | 36 | |
| California | Primary | Mixed | 416 | 79 | 495 | |
| Colorado | Primary | Mixed | 67 | 13 | 80 | |
| Maine | Primary | Closed | 24 | 8 | 32 | |
| Massachusetts | Primary | Mixed | 91 | 23 | 114 | |
| Minnesota | Primary | Closed | 75 | 17 | 92 | |
| North Carolina | Primary | Mixed | 110 | 12 | 122 | |
| Oklahoma | Primary | Mixed | 37 | 5 | 42 | |
| Tennessee | Primary | Open | 64 | 9 | 73 | |
| Texas | Primary | Closed | 228 | 34 | 262 | |
| Utah | Primary | Mixed | 29 | 6 | 35 | |
| Vermont | Primary | Open | 16 | 7 | 23 | |
| Virginia | Primary | Open | 99 | 25 | 124 | |
| Mar 3–10 | Democrats Abroad | Caucus** | Open | 13 | 4 | 17 |
| Mar 10 | Idaho | Primary | Closed | 20 | 5 | 25 |
| Michigan | Primary | Open | 125 | 22 | 147 | |
| Mississippi | Primary | Open | 36 | 5 | 41 | |
| Missouri | Primary | Open | 68 | 10 | 78 | |
| North Dakota | Caucus** | Open | 14 | 4 | 18 | |
| Washington | Primary | Closed | 89 | 18 | 107 | |
| Mar 14 | Northern Marianas* | Caucus | Closed | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| Mar 17 | Arizona | Primary | Closed | 67 | 11 | 78 |
| Florida | Primary | Closed | 219 | 29 | 248 | |
| Illinois | Primary | Open | 155 | 29 | 184 | |
| Apr 7 | Wisconsin | Primary | Open | 84 | 13 | 90 |
| Apr 10 | Alaska | Primary** | Closed | 15 | 4 | 18 |
| Apr 17 | Wyoming | Caucus | Closed | 13 | 4 | 17 |
| Apr 28 | Ohio | Primary | Mixed | 136 | 17 | 153 |
| May 2 | Guam* | Caucus | Closed | 7 | 5 | 11 |
| Kansas | Primary** | Closed | 39 | 6 | 39 | |
| May 12 | Nebraska | Primary | Mixed | 29 | 4 | 29 |
| May 19 | Oregon | Primary | Closed | 61 | 14 | 66 |
| May 22 | Hawaii | Primary** | Closed | 24 | 9 | 31 |
| Jun 2 | Delaware | Primary | Closed | 21 | 11 | 28 |
| District of Columbia† | Primary | Closed | 20 | 26 | 43 | |
| Indiana | Primary | Open | 82 | 7 | 77 | |
| Maryland | Primary | Closed | 96 | 23 | 102 | |
| Montana | Primary | Open | 19 | 6 | 22 | |
| New Mexico | Primary | Closed | 34 | 11 | 40 | |
| Pennsylvania | Primary | Closed | 186 | 23 | 176 | |
| Rhode Island | Primary | Mixed | 26 | 9 | 30 | |
| South Dakota | Primary | Mixed | 16 | 5 | 19 | |
| Jun 6 | Virgin Islands* | Caucus | Closed | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| Jun 9 | Georgia | Primary | Open | 105 | 15 | 120 |
| West Virginia | Primary | Mixed | 28 | 6 | 30 | |
| Jun 23 | Kentucky | Primary | Closed | 54 | 6 | 52 |
| New York† | Primary | Closed | 273 | 46 | 270 | |
| Jul 7 | New Jersey | Primary | Mixed | 126 | 21 | 128 |
| Jul 11 | Louisiana | Primary | Closed | 54 | 7 | 57 |
| Jul 12 | Puerto Rico | Primary | Open | 51 | 8 | 59 |
| Aug 11 | Connecticut | Primary | Closed | 60 | 15 | 64 |
| N/A | Unassigned | – | – | – | 1 | 1 |
| Total delegates | 3,979 | 765 | 4,744 | |||
Iowa caucus
The Iowa Democratic caucus was held on February 3, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses|Polling}}
New Hampshire primary
The New Hampshire Democratic primary was held on February 11, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary|Polling}}
Nevada caucus
The Nevada Democratic caucus was held on February 22, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 Nevada Democratic caucuses|Polling}}
South Carolina primary
The South Carolina Democratic primary was held on February 29, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 South Carolina Democratic primary|Polling}}
Alabama primary
The Alabama Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 Alabama Democratic primary|Polling}}
Arkansas primary
The Arkansas Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 Arkansas Democratic primary|Polling}}
California primary
The California Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 California Democratic presidential primary|Polling}}
Colorado primary
The Colorado Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 Colorado Democratic primary|Polling}}
Maine primary
The Maine Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 Maine Democratic primary|Polling}}
Massachusetts primary
The Massachusetts Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 Massachusetts Democratic primary|Polling}}
Minnesota primary
The Minnesota Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 Minnesota Democratic primary|Polling}}
North Carolina primary
The North Carolina Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 North Carolina Democratic primary|Polling}}
Oklahoma primary
The Oklahoma Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 Oklahoma Democratic primary|Polling}}
Tennessee primary
The Tennessee Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 Tennessee Democratic primary|Polling}}
Texas primary
The Texas Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 Texas Democratic primary|Polling}}
Utah primary
The Utah Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 Utah Democratic primary|Polling}}
Vermont primary
The Vermont Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 Vermont Democratic primary|Polling}}
Virginia primary
The Virginia Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 Virginia Democratic primary|Polling}}
Idaho primary
The Idaho Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on March 10, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 Idaho Democratic primary|Polling}}
Michigan primary
The Michigan Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on March 10, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 Michigan Democratic primary|Polling}}
Mississippi primary
The Mississippi Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on March 10, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 Mississippi Democratic primary|Polling}}
Missouri primary
The Missouri Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on March 10, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 Missouri Democratic primary|Polling}}
North Dakota caucus
The North Dakota Democratic caucus is scheduled to take place on March 10, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 North Dakota Democratic caucuses|Polling}}
Washington primary
The Washington Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on March 10, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 Washington Democratic primary|Polling}}
Arizona primary
The Arizona Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on March 17, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 Arizona Democratic primary|Polling}}
Florida primary
The Florida Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on March 17, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 Florida Democratic primary|Polling}}
Illinois primary
The Illinois Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on March 17, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 Illinois Democratic primary|Polling}}
Wisconsin primary
The Wisconsin Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on April 7, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 Wisconsin Democratic primary|Polling}}
Ohio primary
The Ohio Democratic primary was originally scheduled to take place on March 17, 2020.[18] Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the primary was delayed. Initially, the Governor suggested the primary be held on June 2, 2020,[19] however, further deliberations resulted in the legislature and Governor agreeing on suspending in-person voting, and selecting a mail-in ballot deadline of April 28, 2020.[20] {{#section-h:2020 Ohio Democratic primary|Polling}}
Kansas primary
The Kansas Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on May 2, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 Kansas Democratic primary|Polling}}
Oregon primary
The Oregon Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on May 19, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 Oregon Democratic primary|Polling}}
Delaware primary
The Delaware Democratic primary was scheduled to take place on April 28, 2020,[18] but was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and will instead occur on June 2, 2020.[21] {{#section-h:2020 Delaware Democratic primary|Polling}}
Indiana primary
The Indiana Democratic primary was scheduled to take place on May 5, 2020,[18] but was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and will instead occur on June 2, 2020.[22] {{#section-h:2020 Indiana Democratic primary|Polling}}
Maryland primary
The Maryland Democratic primary was scheduled to take place on April 28, 2020,[18] but was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and will instead occur on June 2, 2020.[23] {{#section-h:2020 Maryland Democratic primary|Polling}}
Montana primary
The Montana Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 Montana Democratic primary|Polling}}
New Mexico primary
The New Mexico democratic primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2020.[18] {{#section-h:2020 New Mexico Democratic primary|Polling}}
Pennsylvania primary
The Pennsylvania Democratic primary was scheduled to take place on April 28, 2020,[18] but was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and is instead scheduled for June 2, 2020.[24] {{#section-h:2020 Pennsylvania Democratic primary|Polling}}
Georgia primary
The Georgia Democratic primary was originally scheduled to take place on March 24, 2020,[18] but was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, first to May 19, 2020,[25] and then further delayed to June 9, 2020.[26] {{#section-h:2020 Georgia Democratic primary|Polling}}
New York primary
The New York Democratic primary was scheduled to take place on April 28, 2020,[18] but was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and is instead scheduled for June 23, 2020.[27] {{#section-h:2020 New York Democratic primary|Polling}}
New Jersey primary
The New Jersey Democratic primary was scheduled to take place on June 2, 2020,[18] but was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and is instead scheduled for July 7, 2020.[28] {{#section-h:2020 New Jersey Democratic primary|Polling}}
Connecticut primary
The Connecticut Democratic primary was scheduled to take place on April 28, 2020,[18] but was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, first to June 2, 2020,[29] and then further delayed to August 11, 2020.[30] {{#section-h:2020 Connecticut Democratic primary|Polling}}
Notes
Partisan clients
Additional candidates
References
- ↑ "DNC Announces Details For The First Two Presidential Primary Debates". Democratic National Committee. February 14, 2019. Retrieved March 9, 2019.
- ↑ Montellaro, Zach (June 6, 2019). "Who's in — and out — of the first Democratic debates". Retrieved June 7, 2019.
- ↑ Verhovek, John (May 29, 2019). "ABC News to host 3rd Democratic primary debate in September as DNC announces higher qualifying threshold". ABC News. Retrieved May 29, 2019.
- ↑ "Political Intelligence – The State of the Democratic Primary". Morning Consult.
- ↑ "Political Intelligence – The State of the Democratic Primary on the Wayback Machine". Morning Consult. Archived from the original on 2020-06-20. Retrieved 2020-06-22.
- ↑ "Political Intelligence – The State of the Democratic Primary on the Wayback Machine". Morning Consult. Archived from the original on 2019-11-01. Retrieved 2020-06-22.
- ↑ "Political Intelligence – The State of the Democratic Primary on the Wayback Machine". Morning Consult.
- ↑ "Morning Consult: The 2020 U.S. Election". January 13, 2020. Archived from the original on January 13, 2020.
- ↑ "Morning Consult: The 2020 U.S. Election". January 21, 2020. Archived from the original on January 21, 2020.
- ↑ "Morning Consult: The 2020 U.S. Election". January 22, 2020. Archived from the original on January 22, 2020.
- ↑ "Morning Consult: The 2020 U.S. Election". February 1, 2020. Archived from the original on February 1, 2020.
- ↑ "Morning Consult: The 2020 U.S. Election". February 9, 2020. Archived from the original on February 9, 2020.
- ↑ "Morning Consult: The 2020 U.S. Election". February 14, 2020. Archived from the original on February 14, 2020.
- ↑ "Morning Consult: The 2020 U.S. Election". February 19, 2020. Archived from the original on February 19, 2020.
- ↑ "Morning Consult: The 2020 U.S. Election". February 28, 2020. Archived from the original on March 2, 2020.
- ↑ 16.0 16.1 "2020 Democratic Hard and Soft Count Delegate Summary". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 24, 2019.
- ↑ 17.0 17.1 "Democratic Delegate Pledging and Voter Eligibility". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 24, 2019.
- ↑ 18.00 18.01 18.02 18.03 18.04 18.05 18.06 18.07 18.08 18.09 18.10 18.11 18.12 18.13 18.14 18.15 18.16 18.17 18.18 18.19 18.20 18.21 18.22 18.23 18.24 18.25 18.26 18.27 18.28 18.29 18.30 18.31 18.32 18.33 18.34 18.35 18.36 18.37 18.38 18.39 18.40 18.41 18.42 Putnam, Josh. "The 2020 Presidential Primary Calendar". Frontloading HQ. Retrieved June 24, 2019.
- ↑ McKenzie Caldwell (March 17, 2020). "Ohio primary election will now be held June 2". The Times-Gazette. Retrieved March 17, 2020.
- ↑ Tobias, Andrew J. (March 25, 2020). "Ohio lawmakers sets all-mail primary election through April 28; legal challenge still possible". cleveland. Cleveland Plain Dealer.
- ↑ Chase, Randall (March 24, 2020). "Delaware presidential primary delayed because of coronavirus". AP NEWS.
- ↑ Sikich, Chris (March 20, 2020). "Governor is moving Indiana primary election to June 2". Indianapolis Star. Retrieved March 20, 2020.
- ↑ Alice Miranda Ollstein; Zach Montellaro (March 17, 2020). "Maryland postpones April 28 primary election over coronavirus". Politico. Retrieved March 17, 2020.
- ↑ Levy, Marc; Scolforo, Mark (March 25, 2020). "Pennsylvania lawmakers vote to delay primary election". AP NEWS. Retrieved March 25, 2020.
- ↑ Bluestein, Greg (March 14, 2020). "Georgia delays presidential primary due to coronavirus pandemic". The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Retrieved March 14, 2020.
- ↑ Mark Niesse (April 9, 2020). "Georgia primary delayed again to June 9 during coronavirus emergency". The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Retrieved April 9, 2020.
- ↑ Meg Cunningham (March 28, 2020). "New York presidential primary postponed amid record numbers of coronavirus cases". ABC News. Retrieved March 28, 2020.
- ↑ Friedman, Matt (April 8, 2020). "Murphy officially delays New Jersey primary to July 7: 'I don't want a Wisconsin'". Politico. Retrieved April 9, 2020.
- ↑ Sullivan, Kate (March 19, 2020). "Connecticut governor says primaries moved to June". CNN. Retrieved March 19, 2020.
- ↑ Ken Dixon (April 17, 2020). "Connecticut's presidential primary will be delayed further by coronavirus: August 11". Connecticut Post. Archived from the original on April 18, 2020. Retrieved April 17, 2020.
See also
- Nationwide opinion polling for the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Democratic National Convention
- Opinion polling for the 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- Nationwide opinion polling for the 2020 United States presidential election
- Statewide opinion polling for the 2020 United States presidential election