Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
This is a list of statewide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the Republican primaries for the 2024 United States presidential election. The persons named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy.
Background
The Republican National Committee determined that candidates must qualify for the first primary debate by polling above 1% in three national polls since July 2023 – or in two national polls and one poll from two different early primary states (of which the polls must meet committee standards) – as well as attract donations from at least 40,000 individuals, with at least 200 from each of 20 states or territories.[1] Each subsequent debate raised the polling threshold for qualification. For the second debate, candidates needed to poll above 3% in August or September in two national polls; otherwise, one national poll plus two state polls in two separate early primary states also qualify. The donor threshold was also raised for the second debate to 50,000 individuals.[2] For the third and fourth debates, the threshold was raised to above 4% in one national poll and one early primary state poll, as well as 70,000 unique donors.[3] Individuals who have been included in statewide Republican primary polls but have either ruled out their candidacy or not expressed interest in running include Greg Abbott, Tucker Carlson, Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Kristi Noem, Mike Pompeo, Mitt Romney, Marco Rubio, Rick Scott, Chris Sununu, Donald Trump Jr., Ivanka Trump, and Glenn Youngkin.
Primary and caucus calendar
| Date[4] | Delegates | Primaries/caucuses | |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 15 | 40 | Iowa caucus | |
| January 23 | 22 | New Hampshire primary | |
| February 6 | - | Nevada primary[lower-alpha 1] | |
| February 8 | 35 | 26 9 |
Nevada caucus Virgin Islands caucus |
| February 24 | 50 | South Carolina primary | |
| February 27 | 55 | Michigan primary | |
| March 2 | 86 | 32 54 |
Idaho caucus Missouri caucus |
| March 3 | 19 | District of Columbia primary | |
| March 4 | 29 | North Dakota caucus | |
| March 5 (Super Tuesday) |
874 | 49 28 9 40 169 37 20 40 39 75 43 58 162 40 17 48 |
Alabama primary Alaska primary American Samoa caucus Arkansas primary California primary Colorado primary Maine primary Massachusetts primary Minnesota primary North Carolina primary Oklahoma primary Tennessee primary Texas primary Utah primary Vermont primary Virginia primary |
| March 9 | 9 | Guam caucus | |
| March 10 | 32 | 9 23 |
Northern Marianas caucus Puerto Rico primary |
| March 12 | 160 | 59 19 39 43 |
Georgia primary Hawaii caucus Mississippi primary Washington primary |
| March 19 | 349 | 43 125 64 39 78 |
Arizona primary Florida primary Illinois primary Kansas primary Ohio primary |
| March 23 | 46 | Louisiana primary | |
| April 2 | 195 | 28 16 91 19 41 |
Connecticut primary Delaware primary New York primary Rhode Island primary Wisconsin primary |
| April 18–20 | 29 | Wyoming caucus | |
| April 23 | 67 | Pennsylvania primary | |
| May 7 | 58 | Indiana primary | |
| May 14 | 104 | 37 36 31 |
Maryland primary Nebraska primary West Virginia primary |
| May 21 | 77 | 46 31 |
Kentucky caucus Oregon primary |
| June 4 | 131 | 31 49 22 29 |
Montana primary New Jersey primary New Mexico primary South Dakota primary |
Aggregate polling summary
| States polled |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Ron DeSantis |
Nikki Haley |
Donald Trump |
Other/ Undecided[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa[5] | January 11 – 15, 2024 | January 15, 2024 | 15.7% | 18.5% | 52.5% | 13.3%[lower-alpha 3] | Trump +34.0 |
| Massachusetts[6] | February 7–8, 2024 | February 15, 2024 | – | 29.3% | 63.0% | 7.7% | Trump +33.7 |
| New Hampshire[7] | January 22–23, 2024 | January 23, 2024 | 7.3% | 35.7% | 56.5% | 0.5% | Trump +20.8 |
| South Carolina[8] | February 16–20, 2024 | February 21, 2024 | – | 34.6% | 61.6% | 3.8% | Trump +27.0 |
| Wisconsin[9] | February 7, 2024 | February 15, 2024 | – | 22.5% | 71.5% | 6.0% | Trump +49.0 |
| States polled |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Nikki Haley |
Donald Trump |
Other/ Undecided[lower-alpha 4] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona[10] | through February 4, 2024 | February 15, 2024 | 21.0% | 76.9% | 2.1% | Trump +55.9 |
| California[11] | through February 4, 2024 | February 10, 2024 | 18.9% | 76.7% | 4.4% | Trump +57.8 |
| Florida[12] | through February 4, 2024 | February 10, 2024 | 14.1% | 84.2% | 1.7% | Trump +70.1 |
| Georgia[13] | through February 4, 2024 | February 10, 2024 | 18.1% | 79.0% | 2.9% | Trump +60.9 |
| Iowa[14] | through January 14, 2024 | January 15, 2024 | 18.7% | 52.7% | 28.6%[lower-alpha 5] | Trump +34.0 |
| Massachusetts[15] | through March 3, 2024 | March 4, 2024 | 29.3% | 66.6% | 4.1% | Trump +37.3 |
| Michigan[16] | through February 24, 2024 | February 25, 2024 | 21.8% | 78.7% | – | Trump +56.9 |
| New Hampshire[17] | through January 22, 2024 | January 23, 2024 | 36.3% | 53.9% | 9.8% | Trump +17.6 |
| North Carolina[18] | through February 4, 2024 | February 15, 2024 | 22.1% | 74.7% | 4.2% | Trump +52.6 |
| Ohio[19] | through February 4, 2024 | February 10, 2024 | 16.9% | 81.9% | 1.2% | Trump +56.4 |
| Pennsylvania[20] | through February 4, 2024 | February 10, 2024 | 17.8% | 78.5% | 3.7% | Trump +51.3 |
| South Carolina[21] | through February 23, 2024 | February 23, 2024 | 34.0% | 61.6% | 4.4% | Trump +27.6 |
| Tennessee[22] | through March 3, 2024 | March 5, 2024 | 15.3% | 84.4% | 0.3% | Trump +69.1 |
| Texas[23] | through March 3, 2024 | March 4, 2024 | 14.9% | 79.4% | 5.7% | Trump +64.5 |
| Virginia[24] | through March 3, 2024 | March 4, 2024 | 17.4% | 66.2% | 16.4% | Trump +48.8 |
| Wisconsin[25] | through February 4, 2024 | February 15, 2024 | 21.1% | 70.9% | 8.0% | Trump +49.8 |
| States polled |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Ron DeSantis |
Nikki Haley |
Donald Trump |
Other/ Undecided[lower-alpha 6] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa[26] | January 5 – 14, 2024 | January 15, 2024 | 15.7% | 18.8% | 52.5% | 13.0%[lower-alpha 7] | Trump +33.7 |
| Nevada[27] | September 29, 2023 – January 8, 2024 | January 19, 2024 | 10.5% | – | 69.0% | 20.5%[lower-alpha 8] | Trump +58.5 |
| New Hampshire[28] | January 16–22, 2024 | January 23, 2024 | 8.0% | 36.5% | 55.8% | – | Trump +19.3 |
| South Carolina[29] | January 23, 2024 – February 10, 2024 | February 15, 2024 | – | 30.5% | 64.0% | 5.5% | Trump +33.5 |
Iowa caucus
The 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses were held on January 15, 2024. {{#section-h:2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses|Polling}}
New Hampshire primary
The 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary was held on January 23, 2024. {{#section-h:2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
Nevada primary and caucus
The 2024 Nevada Republican presidential primary and caucus was held on February 6 and February 8, 2024, respectively. {{#section-h:2024 Nevada Republican presidential caucuses|Polling}}
South Carolina primary
The 2024 South Carolina Republican presidential primary was held on February 24, 2024. {{#section-h:2024 South Carolina Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
Michigan primary and caucus
The 2024 Michigan Republican presidential primary and caucus were held on February 27 and March 2, 2024, respectively. {{#section-h:2024 Michigan Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
Missouri caucus
The 2024 Missouri Republican presidential caucuses were held on March 2, 2024. {{#section-h:2024 Missouri Republican presidential caucuses|Polling}}
Alabama primary
{{#section-h:2024 Alabama Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
Arkansas primary
{{#section-h:2024 Arkansas Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
California primary
{{#section-h:2024 California Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
Maine caucus
{{#section-h:2024 Maine Republican presidential caucuses|Polling}}
Massachusetts primary
{{#section-h:2024 Massachusetts Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
North Carolina primary
{{#section-h:2024 North Carolina Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
Oklahoma primary
{{#section-h:2024 Oklahoma Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
Tennessee primary
{{#section-h:2024 Tennessee Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
Texas primary
{{#section-h:2024 Texas Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
Utah caucus
{{#section-h:2024 Utah Republican presidential caucuses|Polling}}
Virginia primary
{{#section-h:2024 Virginia Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
Georgia primary
{{#section-h:2024 Georgia Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
Mississippi primary
{{#section-h:2024 Mississippi Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
Arizona primary
{{#section-h:2024 Arizona Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
Florida primary
{{#section-h:2024 Florida Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
Illinois primary
{{#section-h:2024 Illinois Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
Kansas caucus
{{#section-h:2024 Kansas Republican presidential caucuses|Polling}}
Ohio primary
{{#section-h:2024 Ohio Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
Louisiana primary
{{#section-h:2024 Louisiana Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
New York primary
{{#section-h:2024 New York Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
Rhode Island primary
{{#section-h:2024 Rhode Island Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
Wisconsin primary
{{#section-h:2024 Wisconsin Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
Pennsylvania primary
{{#section-h:2024 Pennsylvania Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
Indiana primary
{{#section-h:2024 Indiana Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
Maryland primary
{{#section-h:2024 Maryland Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
West Virginia primary
{{#section-h:2024 West Virginia Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
Kentucky caucus
{{#section-h:2024 Kentucky Republican presidential caucuses|Polling}}
Montana primary
{{#section-h:2024 Montana Republican presidential primary|Polling}}
See also
- Nationwide opinion polling for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican National Convention
- Nationwide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election
- Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election
Notes
- ↑ The state-organized primary will be boycotted by the Nevada Republican Party and its results ignored in favor of the party-organized caucus two days later.
- ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ↑ Vivek Ramaswamy 6.8%
Chris Christie 3.0%
Ryan Binkley 1.5%
Asa Hutchinson 0.8% - ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ↑ Ron DeSantis 15.8%
Vivek Ramaswamy 6.4%
Asa Hutchinson 0.7% - ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ↑ Vivek Ramaswamy 6.8%
Asa Hutchinson 0.8% - ↑ Vivek Ramaswamy 5.0%
Chris Christie 3.0%
Partisan clients
References
- ↑ "RNC Announces Criteria and Date for First Debate in Milwaukee". Republican National Committee. June 2, 2023. Archived from the original on July 23, 2023. Retrieved June 25, 2023.
- ↑ Cohen, Ethan (August 1, 2023). "RNC to impose stricter criteria for candidates to make the second debate stage in September". CNN. Archived from the original on August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
- ↑ Steinhauser, Paul (September 21, 2023). "RNC raising the bar for candidates to make the stage at November's third debate". Fox News. Archived from the original on September 26, 2023. Retrieved September 21, 2023.
- ↑ The Green Papers (November 15, 2023). "The Green Papers – Presidential Primaries 2024 – Republican Pledged and Unpledged Delegate Summary". The Green Papers. Archived from the original on September 23, 2023. Retrieved November 16, 2023.
- ↑ "Iowa". Archived from the original on November 26, 2024. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
- ↑ "Massachusetts". Archived from the original on February 15, 2024. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
- ↑ "New Hampshire". Archived from the original on November 17, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
- ↑ "South Carolina". Archived from the original on December 4, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
- ↑ "Wisconsin". Archived from the original on February 15, 2024. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
- ↑ "Arizona". Archived from the original on December 22, 2023. Retrieved December 23, 2023.
- ↑ "California". Archived from the original on November 18, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
- ↑ "Florida". Archived from the original on November 17, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
- ↑ "Georgia". Archived from the original on December 23, 2023. Retrieved December 23, 2023.
- ↑ "Iowa". Archived from the original on October 23, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
- ↑ Massachusetts
- ↑ "Michigan". Archived from the original on December 23, 2023. Retrieved December 23, 2023.
- ↑ "New Hampshire". Archived from the original on January 20, 2024. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
- ↑ "North Carolina". Archived from the original on December 23, 2023. Retrieved December 23, 2023.
- ↑ "Ohio". Archived from the original on December 23, 2023. Retrieved December 23, 2023.
- ↑ "Pennsylvania". Archived from the original on December 10, 2023. Retrieved December 10, 2023.
- ↑ "South Carolina". Archived from the original on November 16, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
- ↑ "Tennessee". Archived from the original on December 23, 2023. Retrieved December 23, 2023.
- ↑ "Texas". Archived from the original on December 23, 2023. Retrieved December 23, 2023.
- ↑ "Virginia". Archived from the original on December 23, 2023. Retrieved December 23, 2023.
- ↑ "Wisconsin". Archived from the original on December 23, 2023. Retrieved December 23, 2023.
- ↑ "Iowa". Archived from the original on January 15, 2024. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ↑ "Nevada". Archived from the original on January 21, 2024. Retrieved January 21, 2024.
- ↑ "New Hampshire". Archived from the original on January 24, 2024. Retrieved January 20, 2024.
- ↑ "South Carolina". Archived from the original on January 14, 2024. Retrieved January 14, 2024.