Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election
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Leading presidential candidate by state or district, based on opinion polls. This map only represents polling data. It is not a prediction for the election. | |||||||||||||||||||
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This article is a collection of statewide opinion polls conducted for the 2024 United States presidential election. The people named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy. According to NPR's analysis, the states considered to be not strongly leaning in either direction are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.[1]
Limitations
Poll results can be affected by methodology, especially in how they predict who will vote in the next election, and re-weighting answers to compensate for slightly non-random samples. One technique, "weighting on recalled vote" is an attempt to compensate for previous underestimates of votes for Donald Trump by rebalancing the sample based on last vote. This can introduce new errors if voters misstate their previous votes. When used for the 2024 presidential election it had produced results closer to the 2020 presidential election than the 2022 mid-term election.[2]
Forecasts
Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts to give readers a sense of how probable various electoral outcomes are. These forecasts use a variety of factors to determine the likelihood of each candidate winning each state. Most election predictors use the following ratings:
- "tossup": no advantage
- "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
- "lean" or "leans": slight advantage
- "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
- "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory
Below is a list of states considered by one or more forecast to be competitive; states that are deemed to be "safe" or "solid" by all forecasters are omitted for brevity.
| State | EVs | Last poll closing time (UTC−05:00)[3][4] |
PVI[5] | 2020 result |
2020 margin[6] |
IE November 3, 2024[7] |
Cook November 4, 2024[8] |
CNalysis November 4, 2024[9] |
Sabato November 4, 2024[10] |
CNN November 4, 2024[11] |
DDHQ November 5, 2024[12] |
538 November 5, 2024[13] |
Economist November 5, 2024[14] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 3 | Nov 6 01:00 am | R+8 | 52.8% R | 10.06% | Solid R | Solid R | Very Likely R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R |
| Arizona | 11 | Nov 5 09:00 pm | R+2 | 49.4% D | 0.31% | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) |
| Colorado | 10 | Nov 5 09:00 pm | D+4 | 55.4% D | 13.50% | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Lean D | Likely D | Solid D | Safe D |
| Florida | 30 | Nov 5 08:00 pm | R+3 | 51.2% R | 3.36% | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Georgia | 16 | Nov 5 07:00 pm | R+3 | 49.5% D | 0.24% | Tossup | Tossup | Likely D | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Iowa | 6 | Nov 5 09:00 pm | R+6 | 53.1% R | 8.20% | Tilt R | Likely R | Tilt R | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Kansas | 6 | Nov 5 09:00 pm | R+10 | 56.1% R | 14.63% | Solid R | Solid R | Very Likely R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R |
| Maine[lower-alpha 1] | 2 | Nov 5 08:00 pm | D+2 | 53.1% D | 9.07% | Likely D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D |
| ME–02[lower-alpha 1] | 1 | Nov 5 08:00 pm | R+6[lower-alpha 2] | 52.3% R[lower-alpha 2] | 7.44%[lower-alpha 2] | Lean R | Likely R | Very Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Michigan | 15 | Nov 5 09:00 pm | R+1 | 50.6% D | 2.78% | Tossup | Tossup | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Likely D |
| Minnesota | 10 | Nov 5 09:00 pm | D+1 | 52.4% D | 7.11% | Lean D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D |
| NE–01[lower-alpha 1] | 1 | Nov 5 09:00 pm | R+9[lower-alpha 2] | 56.0% R[lower-alpha 2] | 14.92%[lower-alpha 2] | Solid R | Solid R | Solid R | Likely R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R |
| NE–02[lower-alpha 1] | 1 | Nov 5 09:00 pm | EVEN[lower-alpha 2] | 52.0% D[lower-alpha 2] | 6.50%[lower-alpha 2] | Lean D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Nevada | 6 | Nov 5 10:00 pm | R+1 | 50.1% D | 2.39% | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| New Hampshire | 4 | Nov 5 08:00 pm | D+1 | 52.7% D | 7.35% | Lean D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| New Mexico | 5 | Nov 5 09:00 pm | D+3 | 54.3% D | 10.79% | Solid D | Likely D | Very Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| North Carolina | 16 | Nov 5 07:30 pm | R+3 | 49.9% R | 1.35% | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Ohio | 17 | Nov 5 07:30 pm | R+6 | 53.3% R | 8.03% | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R | Safe R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R |
| Oregon | 8 | Nov 5 11:00 pm | D+6 | 56.4% D | 16.08% | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Lean D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D |
| Pennsylvania | 19 | Nov 5 08:00 pm | R+2 | 50.0% D | 1.16% | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Texas | 40 | Nov 5 09:00 pm | R+5 | 52.1% R | 5.58% | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Virginia | 13 | Nov 5 07:00 pm | D+3 | 54.1% D | 10.11% | Likely D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Wisconsin | 10 | Nov 5 09:00 pm | R+2 | 49.5% D | 0.63% | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Overall | D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups |
D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups |
D – 308 R – 230 0 tossup |
D – 276 R – 262 0 tossups |
D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups |
D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups |
D – 241 R – 230 67 tossups |
D – 241 R – 230 67 tossups | |||||
Alabama
Alaska
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Alaska|Polling}}
Arizona
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Arizona|Polling}}
Arkansas
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Arkansas|Polling}}
California
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in California|Polling}}
Colorado
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Colorado|Polling}}
Connecticut
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Connecticut|Polling}}
Delaware
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Delaware|Polling}}
District of Columbia
Florida
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Florida|Polling}}
Georgia
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Georgia|Polling}}
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Illinois|Polling}}
Indiana
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Indiana|Polling}}
Iowa
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Iowa|Polling}}
Kansas
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Kansas|Polling}}
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Maine|Polling}}
Maryland
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Maryland|Polling}}
Massachusetts
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts|Polling}}
Michigan
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Michigan|Polling}}
Minnesota
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota|Polling}}
Mississippi
Missouri
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Missouri|Polling}}
Montana
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Montana|Polling}}
Nebraska
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska|Polling}}
Nevada
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Nevada|Polling}}
New Hampshire
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire|Polling}}
New Jersey
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey|Polling}}
New Mexico
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico|Polling}}
New York
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in New York|Polling}}
North Carolina
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina|Polling}}
North Dakota
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in North Dakota|Polling}}
Ohio
{{#section-h:2024_United_States_presidential_election_in_Ohio|Polling}}
Oklahoma
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Oklahoma|Polling}}
Oregon
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Oregon|Polling}}
Pennsylvania
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|Polling}}
Rhode Island
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Rhode Island|Polling}}
South Carolina
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in South Carolina|Polling}}
South Dakota
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in South Dakota|Polling}}
Tennessee
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee|Polling}}
Texas
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Texas|Polling}}
Utah
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Utah|Polling}}
Vermont
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Vermont|Polling}}
Virginia
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Virginia|Polling}}
Washington
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Washington (state)|Polling}}
West Virginia
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in West Virginia|Polling}}
Wisconsin
{{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin|Polling}}
Wyoming
See also
- Nationwide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Unlike the other 48 states and Washington, D.C., which award all of their electors to the candidate who receives the most votes in that state, Maine and Nebraska award two electors to the winner of the statewide vote and one each to the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 District boundaries have changed since the 2020 election.
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References
- ↑ Montanaro, Domenico (2024-08-26). "Harris' momentum continues as she ties with Trump in these swing states". NPR. Retrieved 2024-08-27.
- ↑ Nate Cohn (October 6, 2024). "How One Polling Decision Is Leading to Two Distinct Stories of the Election". The New York Times.
- ↑ "2024 Election Poll Closing Times - 270toWin". www.270towin.com.
- ↑ "The Green Papers: 2024 Poll Closing Times for Statewide offices and Congress Electoral College Chronologically". www.thegreenpapers.com.
- ↑ "2022 Cook PVI: State Map and List". Cook Political Report. December 15, 2017. Archived from the original on July 13, 2022. Retrieved July 12, 2022.
- ↑ "Federal Elections 2020" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. July 2023.
- ↑ Gonzales, Nathan. "2024 Presidential Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved November 3, 2024.
- ↑ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
- ↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
- ↑ Kondik, Kyle. "2024 Electoral College ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
- ↑ "Road to 270". CNN.
- ↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". Decision Desk HQ/The Hill. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
- ↑ Morris, G. Elliott (11 June 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
- ↑ "Trump v Harris: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved November 4, 2024.